Inflection Point?

 Well, my pessimistic prediction that the Democrat Party would cheat it's way into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue was inaccurate. I'm glad I was wrong. Of course, they're just as much sore-losers as they were sore-winners in 2020. So, predictably, they're behaving like deadbeat tennants who've been served an eviction notice and are busy trashing the house before they vacate. Or will they decide to burn it down?

We're living through events that will be discussed by historians two millenia from now, the same way contemporary historians discuss the Roman empire. We stand at an inflection-point in Human history. A few weeks where Industrial civilisation might self-terminate (with "extreme prejudice") or where it's decline, which began more than a century ago, continues for another century or so, before succumbing. 

Civilisations are just like any other living thing. They are born, grow, mature, age and die. Civilisations have a lifespan, roughly two thousand years, give-or-take. The intervals between them are called "dark-ages". But 'old-age' isn't the only way civilisations can die. They can also be wiped out by cataclysms. Recent archeological discoveries - such as the ruins at Gobekli Tepe - are revealing the existence of a previously unknown, globe-spanning civilisation which was at least as technologically advanced as ours was in the eighteenth century. It existed thirteen thousand years ago, at the end of the last Ice Age. It appears to have been destroyed by a massive impact from space. 

Our civilisation faces a similar catyclism, although this one could be entirely self-inflicted.

Make no mistake; World War Three is already underway. The United States and its allies are playing the part that Germany (and her allies) did, in WWII, and they will suffer the same fate. The historical parallels are there: As the agressor and the weaker industrial power, their war fighting strategy must necessarily revolve around the concept of 'Blitzkreig' (aka "shock-and-awe") and on advanced, high-tech, low-volume weapons. Germany used this strategy and lost both World Wars. But the victors appear to have learned all the wrong lessons. 

A victory born of Blitzkreig always pups an insurgency. Unlike a revolution, a 'do-or-die' proposition for the revolutionaries, an insurgency has only to persist to succeed. The invaders/occupiers can't declare victory as long as even one insurgent remains active. Only a head-on clash of armies resulting in a decisive victory can ensure a lasting peace afterwards, as the soldiers of the defeated side KNOW they can't prevail and are disinclined to engage in any further resistance. It's around the men who were ordered to surrender without ever 'testing their mettle' against the enemy, that an insurgency coalesces. 

The alternative to Blitzkreig is war of attrition. In such wars, victory has always gone to the opponent with the greater industrial capacity. This has been true for every war since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.

Russia, China and India now possess between them, most of the world's productive industrial capacity. And along with Iran, they control most of the world's hydrocarbon energy, especially oil. Iran can strangle a substantial portion of the West's oil supply by blockading the Straight of Hormuz and can drop missiles on all the oil production facilities on the Arabian Peninsular. The U.S. can't prevent this; the Houthis (a 'third-world', 'rag-tag' military) have already demonstrated they can force a U.S. Carrier Battle Group to withdraw. More on that, below.

There's no way, mathematically, that the West -  the U.S. and it's client-states - can win a war of attrition against the BRICS alliance. That's exactly the type of war that Russia is waging in Ukraine and the BRICS alliance is prepared to fight, globally. The (proxy) war in Ukraine is demonstrating that Blitzkreig is non-viable; Western "wonder-weapons" are proving to be less than 'wonderous'. Hardly surprising, considering they weren't meant to be used on an actual battlefield, against a peer or near-peer opponent. The F35 is the "poster-child". Their true purpose is to frighten/discourage potential enemies and to justify lucrative sales to defence contractors such as Boeing, Raytheon, General Dynamics and so-on. Where do you think the billion$ the U.S. 'sends' to Ukraine gets spent? (Apart from that which gets 'skimmed' by the corrupt officials in both countries, of course.) 

The more 'wonderous' the weaponry is, the more it requires competent humans to design it, build it, service it and use it. "Globalization" hasn't just left the West bereft of industrial productive capacity. It's 'woke', anti-white, misandrist pogrom has stripped it's militaries of the very personnel - white, hetrosexual males - that make it's most effective fighters. The armed forces of the West are all suffering from severe manpower shortages and lack of competence as D.E.I. hiring and promotion practices are based on 'quotas' instead of merit. The 'best-and-brightest' are turning their backs on military careers and those who do join up, lack the intelligence and motivation to effectively operate the complex military technology the western militaries have pinned their fate on. 

And, speaking of "wonder-weapons", the Ukraine conflict has revealed that Russia has developed effective countermeasures to almost all American combat systems and has demonstrated advanced weapons of it's own, that NATO has no effective defence against. 

Donald Trump's bloviating not withstanding, it will take DECADES for the West to rebuild its industrial base and an equal time to train up the vast army of competent civilian specialists needed to make it work. Decades the West doesn't have. To do this, they'll need to abandon all the "woke" policies that prevent competent people being employed in vital positions. (Think Boeing) The elites can't do this without destroying their credibility and that of the system they command.  

Dying empires routinely hire foreigners to fill roles their own citizens won't, because said citizens have come to the conclusion that, thanks to their leaders, their country is not worth defending. You'll want to hope that these foreign mercenaries lose, because if they win, they'll expect a (large) share of the spoils. That means the country they were recruited to defend, will become THEIR country. Look how well that worked for the Romans. 

The West - aka the U.S. and its satrapies - is collapsing, economically, socially and culturally. The BRICS alliance doesn't need to fight a war to defeat them. It has only to wait for the West to collapse under the weight of its own massive debt and socio-cultural contradictions and prevent them from creating any more mayhem. That's the strategy behind the Russian's "Special Military Operation" - the slow, grinding military campaign in the Donbass. Ukraine is America's "tar-baby". As long as Ukraine hasn't surrendered (or isn't allowed to), the U.S. must continue to support it or risk losing all credibility in the interantional arena. Failure to support Ukraine would mean the end of NATO and the collapse of the E.U. along with whatever residual political influence they have in Europe. Ukraine has, by all rational measures, already lost the war, so when she inevitably does collapse, despite all the 'help' from the U.S. and NATO, the same consequences will apply. The Russians are quite content to keep the conflict dragging on for as long as it takes to bleed the West dry - financially and militarily. Exactly the strategy the Allies used to defeat Germany in both world wars. 

The Houthis have demonstrated that you don't have to sink ships to win naval battles. You just have to drive the enemy fleet from the contested area. A sustained barrage of cheap, low-tech missiles can force a carrier battle group to use up all its defensive munitions and once consumed, they have no option but to withdraw. Missile-equiped ships can't be re-armed at sea. The U.S. Navy tried this and declared the evolution too dangerous. Reverting to the Nelsonic "hail-of-fire" only with missiles instead of roundshot, may prove to be the innovation that makes the Aircraft Carrier obsolete, the way the AC made the Battleship obsolete ninety years ago. So China, with its vastly larger arsenal of superior weapons can be quite confident they can deny the U.S. Navy the ability to operate anywhere near their sphere of influence. They can be content to wait for the U.S. to collapse, which will give them the freedom to walk into Taiwan without a struggle. Classic Sun-Tsu.

When (not 'if') the U.S. collapses, the tail that wags the dog - Israel - is 'toast'. Israel is an artificial creation who's primary function is to be a Western foothold in the Middle East and it's been a (political) festering sore there for the best part of a century. And when Israel is gone, it's likely the region will re-unify under a new "Pax". Something like the Ottoman Empire. The only question is whether the new imperial capital will be Ankara or Tehran.

Finally, there's the question; will WWIII go Nuclear? 

The Russians have stated repeatedly, they don't want a nuclear war. (no sane person would.) On the other hand, various U.S and European leaders have spoken openly about utilizing the "nuclear option". On that basis, I think the West is the most likely party to fire the first shot. 

But will they?

Possible, but not likely, in my opinion. 

Here's why: The West is ruled by parasitic psychopaths who have demonstrated, repeatedly, that their only interest is accumulating wealth and power. They regard the countries they rule as tax-farms and the people therein - you and me - as livestock. For decades, they have been sowing the seeds of revolution and these seeds are now germinating. Will their minions launch the missiles if ordered to do so? 

They're in a hole of their own making and their increasingly frantic, draconian and irrational efforts to maintain control are only serving to dig themselves in deeper. They have a window of opportunity in which to initiate a nuclear strike and that window is closing. In my opinion, the period of greatest danger is between now and January 20th 2025 as after that date, they'll have their clammy hands removed from the levers of power (including the nuclear launch codes) and they'll have a whole new set of challenges to contend with as the new regime reveals their crimes and commences prosecutions. Not for "revenge" but in accordance with long standing legal and constitutional precedents and demands. Donald Trump has no choice in this. It's his DUTY. Under the Constitution, he MUST prosecute the people who've commited "high-crimes and treason". And much of what the elites and their "deep-state" operatives have done in the last decade, belongs in this category. 

They have about six weeks to decide whether they want to face justice from a formal legal system and potentially spend the rest of their lives in a (relatively) comfortable prison, or end civilisation and be hunted down by the survivors to face the sort of justice meted out to criminals in the Middle Ages. They deserve the latter, in my opinion. 

 The next few weeks may be an inflection in Human history. The danger this time is far greater than the Cuban Missile Crisis. There were sane adults on both sides of that confrontation. Not so, this time. The next few weeks may see the end of Industrial Civilisation or a reprieve that would allow it to continue it's gradual decline for another century or so. 

Pray for the latter.